The Man Who Predicted 2014 Indian Election, 2016 United States polls and recently held Punjab and Uttar Pradesh elections Reveals Who Will Take The Throne In 2019?
A top ten global social CIO, cyber security, Information Technology expert, data scientist, strategist, advisor, Gaurav Pradhan is a brand in himself. What makes this man interesting is that his political predictions are always on point.
He isn’t a psephologist or a numerologist but someone who predicts things based on data and mood of the people.
Entrepreneur India caught up with data scientist Gaurav Pradhan at the World AI Show, Mumbai organised by Trescon to know his observation for the most talked about elections.
Predicting Elections Through Mood Analytics
“It is based on what people are talking across social media on all the platforms. Then there is intelligence information, and then geopolitics. So if Pakistan wants Hilary and Saudi wants Hilary that means the nation is moving towards Trump,” explains Pradhan.
“In 2014, the youth was the undercurrent. People were sick of scams, it was everywhere. That time the component was not the seasoned voters like me or my grandfather. It was the youth and they wanted to change the future. This was capitalized by Narendra Modi as a nationalist movement. The last election was not about the party but the leader. Similarly, the 2019 election will also be about the leader. The seasoned people are talking about party politics while the youth is focused on the leader,” he points out.
US Election 2016: It was Never Trump Vs Hillary
While for the majority the United States 2016 election was about Donald Trump vs Hillary Clinton, for Pradhan it was always about Mr Clinton vs Mrs Clinton! While this statement might sound aberrant his facts don’t.
“See, understand Trump is rich. Hillary is not that rich, she wants to make money for herself. Trump on the other hand wants to make money for the United States. Nationalism was picking up, everyone was sick of jobs being taken by people from around the globe. So the mood set was Nationalism,” says Pradhan.
Decoding Punjab and Uttar Pradesh Election
The result of Uttar Pradesh election shocked millions.
“I strongly wrote that Punjab election should go to Congress. I am the one who pointed out that BJP will get 300+ seats in the UP election. No one else predicted it, not even Modi or Amit Shah. I drove my car 12,500 kilometers at my own expense. I picked up data points from the community, small villages and framed a chat that said it will be 300+. Everyone laughed and look what happened? In fact, in 2015, I also wrote a thread about Yogi Adityanath and said he would be the CM, there I am.”
2019 Election – Who will Take the throne?
Those who think BJP has lost its support and people are unhappy might want to hear this.
“People who are making those comments are either middle class or the small business class who were saving taxes and now they have lost it. Now here comes data science. I am picking data from rural India. How many families have benefited from the easy supply of cooking gas and electricity? How many have got access to toilets and how many kids are going to school now? When I study this I get a conservative figure of 40 crore or so. I divide it by two, it is twenty crore. You know in 2014, the elections were won by a small margin of 1.4 crore and here you have a larger swing. So my calculation says 2019 belongs to Modi.”
Have you noticed this? PM Modi is inaugurating one or other infrastructure project every few days. That too in different parts of the country. Do a google search on "Modi inaugurates" and find some interesting results which are put down here briefly. In a nutshell, this government has been finishing long pending projects and executing brand new projects in record time. Be sure there will be many more coming in the next few weeks before the election commission restrictions set in. This list itself is big, hope to see more. One question also needs to be asked, what has the Congress been doing all these many years?
Bogibeel rail bridge - largest rail and road bridge in India. built in Assam. Started in 2002, languished till 2015 and then launched on 25-Dec-2018
Solapur-Tuljapur-Osmanabad highway in Maharashtra - started in 2014 and finished on 9 Jan 2019
Varanasi multi modal port for inland waterway project - started Aug 2016, completed 12 Nov 2018
Eastern Peripheral expressway - foundation laid in Nov 2015, launched nov 2018
Western Peripheral expressway - started in 2006 by Haryana govt, languished till 2016, inaugurated in November 2018
India's largest Cancer hospital in Haryana - finished in 3 years, launched on 18 Dec 2018
Kollam Bypass in Kerala -13.1 km length. First foundation laid in 1972. Only 4.5 km completed till 2015. Inaugurated by Modi in Jan 2019
Bhawan-Bhairon Passenger Ropeway Inaugurated For Vaishno Devi Pilgrims – launched dec 25, 2018
First airport in Sikkim, first launched in 2008, work stalled till 2014 due to protests by villagers. Completed on 24th September 2018
Kishanganga dam project in Kashmir – 330Mw hydroelectric power plant. Started in 2007 was scheduled to be completed in 2016, halted due to Pakistan going to Hague. Re-started in 2014 and completed on 19 may 2018.
Two sewerage infrastructure projects worth Rs 199.65 crore under Namami Gange Programme in Prayagraj – 17 dec 2018
Jharsguda airport – second one in Odisha – joint one by AAI and state government. Started in July 2013 – launched in Sep 2018
Mundra LNG terminal in Gujarat – started 2015, launched Sep 2018
Kota Chambal bridge – started in 2006, stopped due to environmental clearances and re-started in 2007. Was to be completed in 2012 but kept delaying. Finally launched in may 2017
Bansagar canal project Mirzapur – agreement for water and power share between MP, UP and Bihar as well as construction. Originally started in 1978, completed and inaugurated by Modi in July 2018
So please ask the neutral and dynasty loving friends - what has dynasty been doing for so many decades - a government in 4.5 years could achieve so much - why couldn't they?
This is called development that will make India a developed country, not doles or secularism.